Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 1.923536e-01 0.229634 0.269650 0.315525 0.366391 0.420804 0.483151
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.346828e-01 0.182599 0.238189 0.306340 0.386549 0.476922 0.585412
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 9.988455e-02 0.153614 0.220732 0.308078 0.416160 0.543106 0.701047
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.148819e-02 0.126141 0.199894 0.301657 0.433592 0.594404 0.800741
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.869621e-02 0.100551 0.176679 0.288182 0.439436 0.630285 0.882080
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.712740e-02 0.088495 0.169637 0.294422 0.469783 0.696898 1.002744
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.571421e-02 0.073181 0.154882 0.287472 0.480896 0.738210 1.091923
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.085624e-02 0.068294 0.155381 0.302216 0.521970 0.819584 1.234245
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.502455e-02 0.059232 0.147224 0.302486 0.541802 0.872504 1.340201
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.072848e-02 0.051710 0.140262 0.303480 0.562030 0.925893 1.447395
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.176480e-03 0.047419 0.138444 0.312330 0.593835 0.995688 1.577584
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.308539e-03 0.044105 0.137880 0.322930 0.628325 1.069725 1.714563
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.707910e-03 0.040775 0.136948 0.333153 0.663248 1.146219 1.857904
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.808982e-03 0.034403 0.128082 0.328275 0.673976 1.188087 1.954316
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.812328e-03 0.030783 0.124705 0.332961 0.699895 1.252361 2.082802
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.154385e-04 0.025790 0.116700 0.327924 0.709421 1.292465 2.177852
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.080862e-04 0.020176 0.105262 0.314689 0.704251 1.310089 2.240959
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.459595e-04 0.018355 0.104057 0.321945 0.733809 1.380343 2.379951
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.425576e-05 0.014849 0.096483 0.314942 0.738220 1.412150 2.463912
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.443510e-06 0.014544 0.099434 0.330854 0.783180 1.506930 2.640113
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 6.293655e-08 0.012495 0.095583 0.331287 0.800547 1.559185 2.755013
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.010768 0.092239 0.332434 0.819030 1.613309 2.873145
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.010006 0.092497 0.341898 0.852802 1.691862 3.027960